Procedures

• VOCABULARY INTRODUCTION:

  To begin class, review or introduce the following vocabulary terms that will be used throughout the lesson. Students will need to understand these terms to be able to analyze trends and data in the lesson.

  • Absentee Ballot
  • Demographics
  • Electoral College
  • Incumbent
  • Independent Voters
  • Margin of Error
  • Political Polling
  • Suburb
  • Swing State
  • Toss-Up
  • Voter Turnout

• INTRODUCTION:

  Before viewing the video clips, ensure that students have a working understanding of how the Electoral College works including the winner-take-all system and the 270 votes needed to win.

  Have students use the handout linked below to view the following video clip and answer the questions. This will provide students with background information on what factors go into predicting presidential election results.

  Handout: Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election (Google Doc)

• Introductory Video Clip: Predicting Swing States in the 2020 Election (3:13)

  • What is meant by race ratings?

  • How do the various race ratings compare to each other?

  • According to Kyle Kondik, what factors go into rating swing states during a presidential election?

  • What are the challenges with rating and predicting elections?

• EXPLORATION:

  Have students individually watch the video clips about each swing state. Using the handout linked below, have them complete the chart based on the video and polling data from 270toWin. Students will make predictions on who will win each of these competitive races. This can also be adapted as a jigsaw activity where students are assigned specific states.

  Handout: Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election (Google Doc)

  • 2016 Results

  • 2020 Polling Data

  • Factors and issues impacting the outcome in 2020

  • Who do you think will win?

• SWING STATE VIDEO CLIPS:

  • Video Clip: Arizona as a 2020 Swing State (3:49)

  • Video Clip: Florida and the 2020 Presidential Campaign ( 6:19)

  • Video Clip: Michigan and the 2020 Presidential Election (5:18)

  • Video Clip: Nevada and the 2020 Presidential Election (2:51)

  • Video Clip: New Hampshire and the 2020 Presidential Election (4:05)

  • Video Clip: North Carolina and the 2020 Presidential Campaign (3:00)

  • Video Clip: Ohio as a 2020 Swing State (2:29)

  • Video Clip: Pennsylvania as a 2020 Swing State (3:46)

  • Video Clip: Wisconsin as a 2020 Swing State (3:17)

• SIMULATION:

  After reviewing the video clips and polling information, students will make predictions for each state.

  Using the following resource from 270toWin, students will use the interactive map to record the results. They can indicate the predicted winner on the map by clicking until it is either red or blue. They should track how each state impacts the total tally at the top. Students can record their predictions on the interactive map themselves and share the link with others through email.

  WEBSITE: 270toWin 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

  Using the Simulation section of the handout, have the students record their predictions and list the swing states that they predict each candidate will win. As an assessment, they should use specific examples from the videos and polling to explain why they believe that this candidate will win.

• CONCLUSION:

  As a summative assessment, have the students write a response to the following questions:

  • What swing states would former Vice President Biden need to win the Electoral College? How likely do you think this is to occur?

  • What states would President Trump need to win the Electoral College? How likely do you think this is to occur?

• EXTENSION ACTIVITIES:

  Campaign Manager- Imagine that you are one of the candidates’ campaign manager responsible for one of the swing states mentioned in the lesson. Develop a plan to win the election in that state. Discuss the issues and strategies that will get your candidate elected.

  National Party Strategy- The Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee are organizations that seek to elect their parties' candidates at the national level. Pick one of these organizations and develop a nationwide strategy for winning control of the Senate. In your strategy include information about the following:

  • Which states to focus on and why

  • Which issues to emphasize and why

  • Other strategies for winning control of the Senate

• ADDITIONAL PROMPTS:

  • What regional trends to you see based on your research and predictions?

  • Discuss the usefulness of national polls in predicting the 2020 presidential elections.

  • Explain the factors that might cause states to vote differently from the previous presidential election.

  • Does the Electoral College place too much emphasis on swing states? Explain your answer.

  • Which state do you think is the most important for each candidate? Explain your answer.