Procedures

• SET UP:

  This lesson offers several options for you to use with your students whether you are teaching in class, using a hybrid model, or engaging through distance learning. It can be completed in steps as a class or students can move at their own pace and complete the activities independently.

  You can post links to the videos in the lesson along with the related handouts and engage in discussion to share responses on a discussion board or learning management system.

  You can also save and share the following Google resources for students to use with this lesson.

  Students can use the handout below to view and define vocabulary terms that will appear in the lesson. They can define and present the terms in a jigsaw activity to save time.

  Handout: Vocabulary Chart (Google Doc)

  Handout: Video Links with Questions (Google Doc)

  In Google, choose "File" then "Make a Copy" to get your own copy. You can make any needed adjustments in the instructions such as which activities students need to complete, when it is due, etc. and then make it available to them via Google

• WARM-UP:

  At the start of class, ask students to consider the following question and engage in class discussion to gauge background knowledge:

  What do you know about political polling?

  You may want to follow up with a poll asking students if they think political polling is effective leading into an national election. After the activity, students can share their reasons for their positions. You can choose one of the following methods to use with students:

  • Take a Stand Activity
  • Students respond in an online platform
  • Create a poll on Poll Everywhere.

• INTRODUCTION:

  With the last two elections fresh in the minds of the public and media, view the following video clip of data journalist Elliott Morris talking about polling in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. Then, use the accompanying question to generate conversation among students.

  Video Clip 1: Polling in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections (4:28)

  • According to Elliott Morris, how did the industry get it wrong in both elections?

• EXPLORATION:

  Have students view the following collection of video clips that discuss polling from a historical lens through the present. They can watch each video independently, view a video with a partner or you can jigsaw them by assigning videos to students. Students should respond to the questions on the handout.

• Video Clip 2: National vs State Polls (1:00)

  Elliott Morris discussed how people should view national polls as compared to state polls in a national election.

  • According to Elliott Morris, how should people view national polls as compared to state polls in a national election?

• Video Clip 3: What is the Margin of Error? (2:17)

  Elliott Morris explained what the statistical term "margin of error" means in relation to polls.

  • Explain the margin of error as Elliot Morris discusses.

  • What is an acceptable margin of error?

• Video Clip 4: Poll Reporting, Media and the Public (2:00)

  Elliott Morris talked about polls, media reporting and public consumption.

  • What is Elliot Morris' message to the media regarding poll reporting?

  • What is Elliot Morris' message to the public regarding poll reporting?

• Video Clip 5: Polls and Public Opinion (3:24)

  Elliott Morris talked about pollsters work on issues, public opinion and the impact on legislation.

  • Explain the impact public opinion polls can have on legislation as Elliot Morris describes.

  • Describe the effect of public opinion on the Supreme Court cases that Elliot Morris highlights.

• Video Clip 6: Straw Polls in American History (6:00)

  Elliott Morris talked about straw polls in American history, including the Literary Digest Poll.

  • Explain the use of straw polls in American history.

  • How did straw polls change at the turn of the century when newspapers became involved?

  • What was the Literary Digest Poll?

• Video Clip 7: George Gallup (4:43)

  • What was George Gallup's contribution to the history of polling?

• Video Clip 8: FDR and Pollster Emil Hurja (3:09)

  Elliott Morris talked about President Franklin D, Roosevelt's pollster Emil Hurja.

  • Who was the first president to have their own pollster?

  • Who was that person and how did he use them?

• Video Clip 9: Telephone Polling (1:34)

  Elliott Morris, U.S. correspondent for The Economist, talked about the origin of telephone sampling and polling over the telephone.

  • Describe the origin and evolution of telephone polling as Elliott Morris describes.

• Video Clip 10: Simulmatics Corporation (2:44)

  Elliott Morris, U.S. correspondent for The Economist, talked about Simulmatics Corporation and its impact on elections.

  • What was the Simulmatics Corporation?

• Video Clip 11: Poll Aggregation

  Elliott Morris talked about the significance of polling averages and the contributions of Charles Franklin.

  • Why is poll aggregation important?

  • How important was political scientist Charles Franklin to this?

• Video Clip 12: Nate Silver (4:06)

  Elliott Morris talked about Nate Silver's contributions to polling.

  • What did Nate Silver do before becoming involved in politics?

  • How much did the media rely on his predictions in 2016?

  • Based on the clip of Nate Silver that is shown, explain the importance of models.

  • Why does Elliot Morris say that Nate Silver changed political reporting forever?

• Video Clip 13: Big Data and Polling (3:48)

  Elliott Morris talked about how big data has changed polling.

  • How has big data changed polling, according to Elliot Morris?

• CONCLUSION:

  Video Clip 14: Suggestions to Improve Polling (3:10)

  Elliott Morris offers suggestions to boost public confidence in the poll, and have journalists feel they are reporting accurate information.

  • Discuss the suggestions Elliott Morris proposes. Do you agree or disagree? Explain your position.

• WRAP-UP ACTIVITY:

  Students should consider the information they learned through viewing the videos in this lesson and class discussion, and respond to the questions below:

  • How effective do you think political polling is?
  • Would you participate in a political poll?
  • Do political polls influence your personal opinion?

• EXTENSION ACTIVITIES:

  Take it to the next level! Have students complete one of the following activities:

  • Harvard Youth Poll: Read the article and summarize the key points. Present them on slides or in a paper and be sure to include your personal opinion.

  • FiveThirtyEight2022 Choose a race to analyze (Senate, House, Governorship) and report your findings in slides or in a paper.