Procedures

• SET UP

  This lesson offers several options for you to use with your students whether you are teaching in class, using a hybrid model, or engaging through distance learning. It can be completed in steps as a class or students can move at their own pace and complete the activities independently.

  You can post links to the videos in the lesson along with the related handout and engage in discussion to share responses on a discussion board or learning management system.

  You can also save and share the following Google resource for students to use with this lesson.

  Handout: Graphic Organizer (Google Doc).

  In Google, choose "File" then "Make a Copy" to get your own copy. You can make any needed adjustments in the instructions such as which activities students need to complete, when it is due, etc. and then make it available to them via Google.

• WARM UP

  Pose the following brainstorming questions to your students, directing them to record their responses in their graphic organizer, share with a partner, and then with the class if they choose.

  • What are political polls, and what purpose(s) do they serve?
  • Are political polls accurate? Why or why not?

• INTRODUCTION

  Play the following introductory video clip of American University Professor Robert Watson providing an introduction to his lesson on public opinion and election forecasting. Direct your students to answer the related questions on their graphic organizer and share their findings with a partner, small group, or the class when finished.

  Clip #1: Introduction to the Lesson (3:07).

  • How does Joseph Campbell describe the relationship between the news media and election polling?
  • Based on the clip, what two major topics will be covered in this lesson?
  • What perspective did the six individuals mentioned in the clip have regarding election polling, according to Campbell?

• VOCABULARY

  Direct your students to their graphic organizers to view and define the vocabulary terms that will appear in the lesson in the chart in their graphic organizer handout. The vocabulary words are also listed to the right on this webpage. We recommend having your students define and present the terms in a jigsaw activity to save time.

  Depending on time and resources, you may consider having your students define and present the terms in a Frayer's Model activity, where each student takes one or two items. Students can then post their models around the room for reference throughout the lesson. Note: this is not an all-encompassing list of terms included in each video. We recommend you preview the video clips to determine any necessary additions/subtractions to this list for your specific students.

• ENGAGEMENT

  Direct students to the engagement section of their graphic organizers. Instruct your students to view the following two video clips that provide information on the early history of political poll bashing since the 1952 Presidential election. Direct your students to answer the related questions on their graphic organizer and share their findings with a partner, small group, or the class when finished.

• Clip #2: 1952 Election (5:47).

  • What “debacle” happened during the Presidential Election of 1948? How did the pollsters respond during the subsequent 1952 election?
  • Based on the clip, what did the 1952 polling indicate and how did this create a “narrative?” How did the election ultimately turn out?
  • What “explanations” did pollsters provide for their inaccuracy and why was this a “difficult proposition?” * Describe pollster George Gallup’s methodology.
  • According to Joseph Campbell, why did many undecided voters vote for Dwight D. Eisenhower?
  • Describe the immediate criticism that pollsters faced, as stated in the clip.

• Clip #3: Post-1952 Poll Bashing (11:05).

  • Summarize journalist Edward R. Murrow’s “sentiment” about election polling.
  • What effect did the 1952 Presidential Election have on polling, according to Joseph Campbell? Why?
  • Why was polling failure seen as a “triumph?” Summarize the reasoning that news commentator Eric Sevareid provided.
  • What “campaign” did columnist Mike Royko lead, and why? Describe its impact.
  • Describe the goal and methods of Arianna Huffington’s campaign. Why did this campaign “fade away?”
  • Summarize journalist Haynes Johnson’s views of polling and related “shoe leather journalism” efforts.

• CHOICE ACTIVITY

  Direct students to the choice activity section of their graphic organizers. Instruct your students to choose one of the two clips that follow about political polling in either the 1980 or 2004 Presidential election. Direct your students to answer the related questions on their graphic organizer and share their findings with a partner, small group, or the class when finished.

• Clip #4: 1980 Election (3:44).

  • How did the polls for the 1980 Presidential Election compare to those in 1952, according to Joseph Campbell?
  • What was journalist Haynes Johnson’s prediction for the election, and how did he respond to his “mis-prediction?”
  • Based on the clip, what was “unusual” about the aftermath of the 1980 election? Summarize the “dispute.”
  • According to Campbell, how and why was polling likened to sorcery?

• Clip #5: 2004 Election (2:44).

  • What did the 2004 Presidential Election “represent?”
  • Describe Jimmy Breslin “campaign” and complaint, as stated in the clip.
  • Does Joseph Campbell agree with Breslin’s complaint? Why or why not?
  • According to Campbell, what was the outcome of the election?

• REFLECTION

  Direct students to the reflection section of their graphic organizers. Instruct your students to view the following two video clips that provide reflections on the history and effect of political poll bashing. Direct your students to answer the related questions on their graphic organizer and share their findings with a partner, small group, or the class when finished.

• Clip #6: Periodic Poll Bashing (2:49).

  • According to Joseph Campbell, what impact does “polling’s record” have related to poll bashing?
  • Summarize Campbell’s second factor of the cause of poll bashing, as stated in the clip.
  • What “direct challenge” does polling offer, and how has this caused poll bashing?

• Clip #7: Decline in Poll Bashing (5:23).

  • What is Joseph Campbell’s first reason for the recent decline in poll bashing?
  • Summarize Campbell’s second reason for the decline in poll bashing, as stated in the clip.
  • Based on the clip, why has the rise in data journalism reduced poll bashing?
  • According to Campbell, what roles has Nate Silver played in recent years?

• CLOSURE

  After your students are finished sharing their findings from the lesson, direct them to complete the final culminating writing prompt in their graphic organizers, and have students share their responses, comparing their perspectives with their classmates' perspectives: Later in his lecture, Joseph Campbell asks his students to describe the effect of poll bashers. Having now learned about the history of election polling and poll bashers, describe what you see as the effect of poll bashers. Be sure to include evidence from the video clips in the lesson to support your argument.