Lesson Plan: Polling and Public Opinion

George Gallup and the History of Polling

Vanderbilt University History professor Sarah Igo discusses George Gallup. George Gallup was a pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion.

Description

Students will learn about polls and the polling process, including associated vocabulary. Students will apply critical thinking skills to analyze questions related to polling accuracy and current issues with polling. Students will determine what factors are important when assessing the accuracy of a poll. Students will then put their knowledge into practice through the creation and analysis of their own polls.

Procedures

  • STEP 1.

    Open the lesson with discussion around the provided vocabulary list associated with polling Have students take notes in their workbooks.

  • STEP 2.

    Watch the following clips and have students answer the questions below.

    VIDEO CLIP: George Gallup and the History of Polling (0:48)

    VIDEO CLIP: Early Polling and Racial Issues (1:28)

    VIDEO CLIP: The Basics of Polling (3:06)

    VIDEO CLIP: The Purpose of Polling (2:17)

    QUESTIONS

    a) What is the difference between polling done by an academic institution/foundation and campaign polling?

    b) Who is the intended audience for the different types of polling? (Discuss “internal polling” for campaigns)

  • STEP 3.

    Technological Challenges of Polling

    View the following video and discuss the questions below:

    VIDEO CLIP: Technology and Internet Polling (1:22)

    QUESTIONS

    a) How has the use of phones and the internet changed over time?

    b) Does this make the job of pollsters easier or harder?

    c) What concerns can you think of with internet polling and mobile polling?

  • STEP 4.

    Bias and Polling Trust

    View the following videos and discuss the questions below:

    VIDEO CLIP: Perceived Bias in Polls (2:10)

    VIDEO CLIP: Increasing Trust in Polling Data (2:32)

    VIDEO CLIP: Identifying Legitimate Polls Among Biased Polls (2:21)

    QUESTIONS

    a) Do you think people believe polls are fair/balanced or biased?

    b) Can you give reasons for your opinion? How can people who conduct polls boost the trust in polls by the public?

  • STEP 5.

    Wrap-Up Discussion:

    When looking at a poll, what factors should they look at to determine whether it is an accurate poll?

    • Media polls v. academic/institutional polls (who sponsored the poll)

    • The overall question (approval/disapproval) and the sub-set of questions

    • The sample and whether that’s published information

    • Margin of error
  • STEP 6.

    Activity:

    Break students into small groups of 2 or 3. Ask them to come up with a basic question relevant to their lives/school/community. They should then come up with two possible answers.

    Discuss the issue of demographics and give the students the example polling sheet to help with ideas.

    Have students conduct their polls and bring their results to class. Discuss their findings.

    Ask them to explain the trends they saw in the poll itself. What general information can they infer about the issue and how people responded based on their data? Do they think their data was reliable or not and why (sample size, diversity of people polled in relation to overall school population, question bias, etc.)?

  • Extension Idea 1

    Have students gather polls on various issues. Show them reliable sites/sources. Ask them to track the polling issue over a period of time to see how it changes and whether different polls have similar results or different results than one another. Have students share their results. How did the polls change over time and were the different sources consistent or not?

    Examples:

    • Polling on a particular issue (gun control, immigration, healthcare, foreign policy)

    • Polling approval ratings (presidential, congressional, whether country is going in right direction)

    • State or national election race (gubernatorial, state congressional, U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate)
  • Extension Idea 2

    During recent presidential elections, there has been much discussion about the accuracy of polling. It’s been reported that in 2012, Mitt Romney's campaign were so convinced they would win, based upon their own internal campaign polling, that they had only written an acceptance speech and not a concession speech.

    Search the web for both video and written articles which discuss the issue of polling accuracy and write a summary of your findings.

  • Writing Assignment

    What were the factors which made polling inconsistent and problematic for the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections? Were the campaigns themselves having issues with their own internal polling and why? Were lessons learned and improvements implemented during the 2016 campaign cycle? What are some ways that future polling methodology and reporting can be changed or improved?

Vocabulary

  • Academic Polls
  • Campaign Polls
  • Demographics
  • Disenfranchisement
  • Exit Polls
  • Foundation/institutional Polls
  • Internet Panels
  • Likely Voters
  • Margin Of Error
  • Media Polls
  • Mixed Methodology
  • Mobile Panels
  • Poll Bias
  • Polls
  • Sample Size
  • Straw Poll

Topics

Campaigns & Elections

Grades

Middle SchoolHigh School